Framework

№ 2026-87 · November 2026 · 38 min

Polycrisis Resilience: A General Definition and the H Heuristics Framework

Polycrisis Resilience, a concept developed by Hunter Hughes, is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, economies, societies and interconnected systems to anticipate, withstand, adapt to, recover from and reduce vulnerability to multiple interacting crises; the H Heuristics framework builds it through development (the world death rate from natural disasters fell 98% between the 1920s and 2010s; composite capacity averages 22 in low-income and 70 in high-income countries, income explaining 81% of the variation), and a permutation test shows the clustering of weaknesses across 166 countries is almost entirely income.

№ 2026-82 · November 2026 · 27 min

A Unified Framework for Understanding and Mitigating the Global Polycrisis

Environmental exposure is uncorrelated with economic, technological and geopolitical exposure across 146 countries (|r| at most 0.05) and a single score keeps only 39% of the information; under 10,000 random weightings just three countries are reliably in the worst twenty and the median country's rank spans 62 places, so the framework should unify the language, the diagnosis and the response while keeping four scores and a capacity score visible.