Climate Risk

№ 2026-77 · November 2026 · 26 min

Accelerating the Global Clean Energy Transition

World clean electricity gains about one percentage point a year, against 2.3 needed for a fully clean grid by 2050 and 3.8 by 2040, yet wind and solar additions have grown 19% a year since 2019 and coal, oil and gas use outside power is still rising. Five countries generate two thirds of fossil power, and if every country at least matched the pace of the fastest tenth of its income peers, world power would be about 95% clean by 2050 rather than 65%.

№ 2026-72 · October 2026 · 24 min

The Clean Energy Trajectory

Clean sources met all of the growth in world electricity demand in 2025 and solar modules are 95% cheaper than in 2010, yet nearly two billion people still use under a megawatt-hour a year. Against a stalled transition, a 1.5 °C pathway avoids 106 billion person-years of hazardous heat, about 54 million deaths from fossil-fuel air pollution, nearly all energy poverty and $18 trillion of fuel imports by 2050. The binding constraints are finance, grids and institutions, not technology.

№ 2026-71 · October 2026 · 24 min

The Polycrisis Apocalypse Humanity Is Facing

On a central measure, 1.2 billion people (16% of humanity) live today where two or more survivability tiers bind on weak institutions; holding today's institutions fixed, warming lifts that to 2.8–4.5 billion by the 2090s, three in five of them in Africa. With 65 armed conflicts in 2025, the most since 1946, and an unsafe equilibrium that could outlast every past civilisation, the cheapest time to choose the buffered path is now.