H Heuristics Digital Reports

H Heuristics · Navigating a Changing World

Digital Reports

Web-native long-form research on systemic risk, climate resilience, development finance and the energy transition. New reports weekly.

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Latest report · № 2026-02 · 10 September 2026

Scaling Climate Adaptation Through Development Finance and Technology Diffusion

The resilience gap is usually described as a shortage of money. It is better understood as two gaps wearing one name — hard adaptation blocked at a capital gate, soft adaptation blocked at a delivery gate — and neither closes while both are treated as the first.

  • 12–14×Assessed adaptation need runs ahead of adaptation finance — and diverging
  • >10:1Return across 320 real adaptation investments; over half non-contingent
  • 87% → 8%Countries with a plan, against finance as a share of assessed need
  • 300,000 → 26Bangladesh cyclone deaths, 1970 to 2020, on concrete and volunteers
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More from the series 2 total

№ 2026-01 · September 2026 · 22 min

The Clean Transition as Global Polycrisis Mitigation Infrastructure

The clean transition is usually argued as climate policy — a cost accepted now for a distant temperature. Read instead as risk-mitigation infrastructure, it lowers four coupled dangers at once: climate destabilisation, air-pollution mortality, energy insecurity and coercive energy geopolitics. The operative variable is not ambition but deployment.

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About the series

H Heuristics Digital Reports are web-native research reports: read in the browser, with live data visuals, source links on every quantitative claim, and a full citation. A new report is published each week.

Citable PDF editions of the underlying research are held in the Research Archive, indexed for Google Scholar. More about the series →